My fantasy team uses a playoff system that Bill Simmons suggested a few years ago. In order to study it, I'd like to run Monte Carlo simulations of last year's post-season. To do so, I need to be able to compute the win probability for a pair of teams given the site of the game. Note this is not a prediction against the spread, just the orders of one team winning. This format also means that I can't use Vegas's point spreads, money lines, etc. because I need to be able to make predictions for pairs of teams that didn't meet in real life.
I thought that it would be easy to find a suitable model online, but I haven't been able to. Here's what I've tried:
- AdvancedNFLStats: In principle they supply all the needed information but I've been unable to reproduce their results. You can see a long post from me at the end of the week 7 team efficiency page that has gotten no replies. I would love to be able to get this model working.
- NFL Predictions uses stats from AdvancedNFLStats to run Monte Carlo paths through the post-season in some way that's slightly different from what AdvancedNFLStats does, but I can't find any info on the methodology.
- Simple Ranking System a.k.a. simple rating system: is focused on predicting margin of victory, not probability. More info here. The creator gives a formula for computing win probabilities here, but it's not clear to me that the same constants can still be used.
- Jeff Sagarin's ELO ratings: also aimed at point spreads, not probabilities
This page seemed promising at first but I didn't get anywhere following up on all the links.