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During the first ODI of India's tour of New Zealand 2014, I could see a new term named WASP on the right side of the TV screen on Sony Six - the channel broadcasting the match.

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When I was searching about that, I found that it means, Winning And Scoring Prediction whose value will be changed during the match.
ie, during first innings the predicted score will be displayed and during the second innings the winning percentage will be shown.

The formula for calculating WASP is mentioned here.

I can't understand it clearly. Can anyone explain it with an example?

Is it logically correct?
How does a mathematical formula differentiate a player with form and without form?
How much values will be given for pitch conditions according to the situation and climate?
The performance of players like Kohli may be same in all countries, but what about players like Ashwin and Rohit in overseas pitches?

I have many more questions, but all of them are under one topic,

Logical explanation of the formula used for calculating WASP in cricket.

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2 Answers 2

Any number of new metrics can be introduced to predict the winning percentages.

A very basic metric would be to use the extrapolation of the current run-rate of the chasing team to determine the winning percentage. Another metric would be to calculate the current form(average of the batsmen-to-come over the past N games(or N months)) and use it to find a projected score. Based on this, one could probably calculate another winning percentage metric. We could add more variables to the mix, such as bowling strike rate, batting strike rate, average score at that stadium, average score by that team in that particular country, and so on.

Even if I added a few more variables to WASP account for a person's form, it would still be incomplete, since it doesn't account for his overseas form/home form, pitch conditions, his mental state and so on.

The point is that at the end of the day, WASP is just yet another metric to make a guess of the probable winning percentage and that there can be no all-encompassing metric.

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They might have considered all the conditions. But still I personally don't think its logical especially when a batsman like MSD is playing at the crease. And how could they judge a batsman(Binny)'s ability who hasn't played a match at all in the today's match with a mathematical formula?

It might be closer to the actual results in many cases, but still Mathematics can't be applied on everything.

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