For an NBA game, I see a market for Spread and one for Winning Margin. The Spread market lists "Team A -5.5: 10/11". The Winning Margin markets lists "Team A, 6 points or more: 3/4". Shouldn't the odds for these two best be equal?
3 Answers
There's no fundamental reason they should be equal, because a bookies' job isn't to accurately reflect the chance of a team winning: it's to make as much money as possible for the bookie. If a bookie has taken too much money on one side of a line, they'll move the odds and/or the line to encourage punters to bet the other side of the line; bookies really don't like a situation where they're at risk of taking a significant loss if one result or another happens - their desired situation is if they have equal exposure on either result, and then they're guaranteed a nice profit thanks to their cut.
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My question was more in line with: should these be equal under perfect betting? By your answer I infer that yes.– unascoltOct 29, 2018 at 8:24
In theory the two markets for the same situation, and so the odds should be the same. However, there are many reasons why they might not be. One, is the rules and regulations, if both markets are for regular time only or if they include OT. And the other one is the margin or juice applied. As a general rule, bookmakers apply 3 pp per each selection, so if the winning margin has 9 selections it will apply 127% book. Usually handicpas apply 6%. Also, for the winning margin, as the odds become smaller, we tend to apply less margin (dynamic margin). So, you can try using those differences in your favor, trying to get as much value as possible.
They should be equal if odds were fair and if both markets apply to the same principle with respect to overtime rules. Usually handicap markets include overtime while margin of victory not (you may find a selection of draw there). Additionally bookmakers apply margin to odds, so there might be a case where handicap is offered in x margin and winning margin in y.