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In the 4 majors of Tennis, the men in the singles competition need to play the best of 5 sets. From what I have seen, is that if a player plays a 5 setter and wins, they are going to have less of a chance of winning the next match than if they had won by 3 sets (just my observation).

This is considering more about endurance, stamina and fatigue rather than skill or who they play against in the next round.

Have there been such analysis done and if so what is the probabilities.

Like saying that the same player against the same opponent in the next round is a % greater chance of losing if they played a 5 set match beforehand instead of a 3 set match.

  • I suspect that stronger players win more matches in 3 sets than weaker players, and subsequently are more likely to win their next set. It seems like it would be important to control for that. – Peter Kagey Sep 12 '17 at 16:46
  • Yes... but taking the actual player ability out of the equation... would they be less likely to win the next match if they played a 5 setter instead of a 3 setter. This would imply that the 5 set match was against someone stronger and therefore take more out of them. But I am talking about the next match they play. – aqwert Sep 12 '17 at 22:25
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I did not see any such statistics.

Maybe just example:

Roger Federer on US Open 2017 1st round Tiafoe 3-2 2nd round Juznyj 3-2 3rd round Lopez 3-0 4th round Kohlschreiber 3-0 QF DelPotro 1-3

So if you do not take into the account also the rankings of the opponent, it can be always misleading. But even with rankings it can be misleading too (see Federer example, who after two 5 sets matches, won next one really easily)

So would be nice to see statistics you mention, but it would have no value for any further evaluations.

  • 3
    With all due respect... one player (arguably the best in history) over a couple of matches will not provide any statistical information in this area as a whole – aqwert Sep 13 '17 at 19:12
  • that was just example. Still think, that statistics you would like to see will have no value – Sport Enthusiast Sep 17 '17 at 9:15

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