# Probability of winning after playing a 5 set match

In the 4 majors of Tennis, the men in the singles competition need to play the best of 5 sets. From what I have seen, is that if a player plays a 5 setter and wins, they are going to have less of a chance of winning the next match than if they had won by 3 sets (just my observation).

This is considering more about endurance, stamina and fatigue rather than skill or who they play against in the next round.

Have there been such analysis done and if so what is the probabilities.

Like saying that the same player against the same opponent in the next round is a % greater chance of losing if they played a 5 set match beforehand instead of a 3 set match.

• I suspect that stronger players win more matches in 3 sets than weaker players, and subsequently are more likely to win their next set. It seems like it would be important to control for that. Sep 12, 2017 at 16:46
• Yes... but taking the actual player ability out of the equation... would they be less likely to win the next match if they played a 5 setter instead of a 3 setter. This would imply that the 5 set match was against someone stronger and therefore take more out of them. But I am talking about the next match they play. Sep 12, 2017 at 22:25