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Are there any models which predict how many players in the NBA are guaranteed to make it in the Hall of Fame if they retired after this season? If so, what results do those models give?

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Basketball Reference has a Hall of Fame probability list based on a very similar question to the one you ask ("If this player retired today, what is the probability he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?").

At the submission of this post, 13 basketball players have a Hall of Fame probability of over 90%.

  • LeBron James (100%)
  • Dwyane Wade (100%)
  • Dirk Nowtizki (100%)
  • Chris Paul (99.99%)
  • Kevin Durant (99.99%)
  • Stephen Curry (99.61%)
  • Dwight Howard (99.30%)
  • Russell Westbrook (99.29%)
  • James Harden (98.59%)
  • Carmelo Anthony (98.18%)
  • Vince Carter (94.55%)
  • Tony Parker (93.86%)
  • Pau Gasol (93.35%)

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