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Why was the precalculated probability of winning high for Raptors in the year 2019? Because Kawhi Leonard came at the end. So just wondering.

I saw a 4 digit number during the 2019 summer on Toronto Raptors website dated before the playoff season of 2019 started. It was something like +1200 sharing the winning spot along with Golden State Warriors. I would like to know how did mathematicians were keen enough to figure that probability out among so many teams in the playoffs? Was it how better their three-point shot was, how tenaciously fast they were, their average scoring trend, how aggressive their offense and defense was but then Kawhi Leonard the main player who was MVP for Raptors was not there in the picture at first. So how was it possible that the calculation was so precise and right to the moment?

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  • Whose precalculated probability of winning? Are you referring to betting odds, or some other metric? – F1Krazy Nov 5 at 13:21
  • I saw the Toronto Raptors team website during summer vacation of 2019 and there it was dated before the playoff season of 2019 that Raptors and Golden State Warriors have the equal probabilistic number of winning the NBA finals. It was a 4 digit integer. Probably +1200 for both teams. So how did the Raptors team website come up with that number? I would like to know that. – mvr950 Nov 5 at 14:44
  • I don't know enough about basketball to be able to answer this myself, but with that extra context, this sounds like a clear and answerable question now. Thanks for the edit, I've retracted my close-vote. – F1Krazy Nov 5 at 14:49
  • Can you provide a link to the website where you saw this number? It's pretty difficult to answer without a reference to your stats. – Steve-o169 Nov 5 at 15:43
  • The website is gone. I searched for it. It's been replaced by new news. It was normal news from the Raptors media department. Saying they had the highest chance of winning the NBA finals placed along with Golden State Warriors. So wondering about the math. How did they come up with that so soon? I saw a documentary about how Raptors call up a player for a particular game. And they see the scorecard of the factors of a particular player as I mentioned in my original post. Thinking did they use the same technique along with winning losing streaks to calculate team's probability or not? – mvr950 Nov 5 at 15:59
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It sounds like the CARMELO provided by 538. The number wasn't 1200, so it may have been something different: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predictions/

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  • This answer needs fleshing out to be a good answer. At the moment, this reads more like a comment rather than an explanation for how the number was calculated. – kuhl Nov 27 at 17:20

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