5

As time goes by, the knowledge of football increases. And we learn more and more ( at least on paper) about how to shoot penalty better.

Do the insights actually help football players in taking penalty? Does penalty success rate increase over time, much like how aviation accident is brought down over time? Or is it just an arm race with no side is apparently winning?

Any studies on the penalty success rate as a function of time?

  • I was tempted to change every occurrence of "penalty" in this post to "penalty kick", but I guess in soccer "penalty" is also equivalent to "penalty kick"? – pacoverflow Nov 29 at 19:11
  • @pacoverflow yes they are – Graviton Nov 30 at 1:59
5
+100

Considering Transfermarkt data on Premier League since 1992, I would say that the success rate has decreased over years.

Year | Success rate (%)
_______________________
1992 |  93.4
1993 |  97.6
1994 |  91.7
1995 |  94.5
1996 |  95.3
1997 |  93.4
1998 |  90.7
1999 |  97.1
2000 |  91.4
2001 |  90.4
2002 |  96.2
2003 |  95.7
2004 |  92.3
2005 |  77.0
2006 |  79.1
2007 |  78.2
2008 |  78.8
2009 |  78.9
2010 |  78.6
2011 |  74.2
2012 |  80.0
2013 |  83.9
2014 |  76.8
2015 |  81.3
2016 |  76.4
2017 |  70.0
2018 |  81.6
2019 |  80.6

premier league

For some reason, it drastically dropped between 2004 and 2005, and it was around 93% before and 78% lately.


Transfermarkt on Bundesliga since 1992:

Year | Success rate (%)
_______________________
1992 |  80.3
1993 |  84.7
1994 |  83.1
1995 |  79.2
1996 |  79.7
1997 |  73.2
1998 |  71.6
1999 |  75.8
2000 |  80.0
2001 |  72.5
2002 |  71.6
2003 |  77.6
2004 |  86.4
2005 |  73.1
2006 |  68.2
2007 |  78.0
2008 |  76.6
2009 |  78.2
2010 |  68.7
2011 |  86.8
2012 |  75.9
2013 |  73.6
2014 |  81.7
2015 |  79.1
2016 |  72.4
2017 |  73.1
2018 |  81.3
2019 |  78.1

1. bundesliga

It's hard to find a pattern on the German statistics. They are roughly around 77%, with ups and downs equally distributed.

  • Interesting , any explanation why is it so ? – Graviton Dec 3 at 10:57
  • @Graviton I have no idea... – Bebs Dec 3 at 13:25
  • 3
    Someone has now asked a question asking what caused the drop in success rate in the first graph. – F1Krazy Dec 4 at 9:31
  • @Bebs That's a great answer! Do you know how I can download the raw numbers (i.e. penalties taken vs penalties scored) for each of the years? Maybe even including the times they were taken... – user2705196 2 days ago
-1

Decreased for sure... I suggest that corrupted games are implicated here. The coefficient for just a penalty is about 5-8. For the missing penalty, it is 30-40% higher.

It would be great if someone would provide stats from some tier3 or tier5 championships, where corruption is on the highest level.

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