This is a stats questions. Imagine team A has a poor FG percentage at half time and team B has a good one, would you expect those rates to convert (mean reversion) or deviate further?

Maybe there is some data to test it empirically.

  • I think you'd have to add some more information to the question if you wanted a useful answer. In particular, are you talking about at a particular skill level - NBA, NCAA, etc.? I'm sure it's possible to test it for NBA, and maybe for NCAA, but even in the NCAA it's questionable how consistent it would be, because for Duke it's more likely to revert to the mean, while for a middle of the road team from a weaker conference it's much more likely that their opponent's defensive abilities have a meaningful impact - so the answer for NCAA teams is likely, "it depends".
    – Joe
    Commented Jun 8, 2020 at 4:13

1 Answer 1


No doubt that your question should be made in a more specific way. FG% if on an extreme (High or Low), can't be kept consistently along the match - you don't get teams scoring 3pts all the time. So, the initial perceived sentiment, is that it reverts to the mean. I have done this analysis, using Play by Play data, and it checks.

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