There's not a perfect answer to this, particularly given NBA advanced stats are a little rougher than some other sports (MLB, NFL), but we are comparing these two possibilities:
Three pointer made: 3 points
2 pointer made, and-one opportunity: 2 points, and one FTA, and one personal foul
Fouls in the NBA's PER (Player Efficiency Rating) are rated as such:
-PF * ((lg_FT / lg_PF) - 0.44 * (lg_FTA / lg_PF) * VOP)
VOP is "value of possession", roughly how much a team is estimated to score on a possession - around a point, give or take, depending on the year. This means they consider a foul to be worth negative 1 points times (free throws made / total personal fouls), which is the made-free-throw rate, and then add back in basically the percentage of free throws that end the possession for the other team.
This is pretty basic, and not unfortunately very useful for this - because we have more information than this formula does. But it gives us two things:
- Personal fouls aren't considered to have any specific value in NBA advanced statistics - meaning, there's no "penalty" for committing a foul other than the points you on average give up. You can argue there probably should be one, but given they don't have a penalty for it in PER, it's not something we can reasonably determine.
- The value for the "and one" should be (2) + (FT%) + (1-FT%)(OREB%)(VOP)
Given OP asked us to assume FT% is 0.75 (close enough), and OREB% is around 22% for the league this year, and VOP is around 1.06 this year for the average team, we can calculate the value of an and-one to be:
2 + 0.75 + (.25*1.06*.22) = 2.81
So an 'and-one' is worth a bit less than a made 3 pointer, analytically.
Of course, there's no question that an and-one that gets a sixth foul on Anthony Davis is worth a lot more than the 2.81 points here; but as far as I can tell, there's no rigorous method for determining that value.