I am considering the formula for weighted stolen base runs (wSB), which is given as
wSB = a * SB + b * CS - lgwSB * (1B + uBB + HBP)
and a = 0.2 and b = (-2 * RunsPerOut + 0.075).
I have two questions:
1.) does anyone know the original paper/inventer of wSB? I have been trying to find out about the history of this statistic but have not been able to
2.) Does anyone know why there is a multiple of 2 in runs per out for the coefficient of caught stealing? I thought wSB was supposed to quantify the contributions to the run count of the stealing attempts of a specific player. Since every time being caught stealing contributes one out, I would have thought the the coefficient b of CS would be more or less RunsPerOut; I don't understand why we then scale by 2.
Can anybody explain this apparent contradiction to me?