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I don’t understand why more players don’t attempt to steal 3rd with 0 or 1 outs? I know the player on 2nd is already in scoring position, but scoring would depend on getting a hit. After stealing 3rd the player can score with various situations that does not require a hit including fly balls and grounders hit to the right side, etc. Those occur much more often than depending on getting a hit only. Can anyone explain the logic or stats for or against stealing 3rd?

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Prior to 2023 and the changes with the pitch clock and base sizes, steals of third had been holding pretty steady at around 77% successful. So you need to weigh whether a nearly 1-in-4 chance of running into an out is worth those sac situations. For the past couple of decades, keeping that runner in play has been held to be the thing to do. Analytics will probably say that while you might get that lead runner to score a bit more often by stealing, your chance of a big inning is better by staying put and keeping out of trouble.

Note that 77% success rate is only of the ones that attempted. Often you have players on the base that know their chance of stealing is well below that. No point in having a slightly slower runner risk it.

Since 2023, steals are up, and percentage successful at third is way up. Will need to see if that is a permanent result of the rules and stealing third goes up, or if the pitchers will recover and bring things back to what they were.

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