9

First you have two questions here. The first regarding circumstantial analysis about when to punt and so forth. ESPN has done many simulations on when the computers say you should punt, kick, or go for it. To summarize if I remember correctly it was basically go for it until it is over 4th and 10 past your 30. Inside your 30, punt on 4th and 5 or longer. ...


8

The basic formula for WAR is as follows: WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs + Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win) Different sources will have different ways of calculating these values. Baseball Reference (ESPN's source) uses: bWAR: RS (Runs Scored) = Runs per Win + (mwRAA (a modified ...


7

Most of baseball takes place in a single one on one interaction: Pitcher throws, Batter hits. In that sense, it is fairly easy to tease out the performance of the batter and the pitcher based on the result in many cases. A home run, a walk, a strike out, all of these are entirely based on the one on one matchup and the other eight players might as well be ...


5

In the park Home Runs are not tracked separately from HR and would not be included in BABIP. Neither Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference nor MLB have in-the-park-homers tracked and thus do not include it in their BABIP calculations. As there are only a few each year, and the number is very small in relation to the total number of hits, at-bats and home runs, ...


5

Not quite. The denominators are different for SLG and OBP, which makes combining the numerators more complicated than you're making it: SLG = TB / AB OBP = (H + BB + HBP) / (AB + BB + SF + HBP) Take a look at the equations.


5

The simple answer is because baseball is much easier to analyze than soccer: baseball very easily breaks down into a series of separate events (pitches), each of which have an clear outcome (strike, ball, base hit, home run, etc) which move the game from one clearly defined state to another (e.g. "team down by 2 runs in the top of the 7th, runners on first ...


4

There has been analysis done to look at the correlation between individual WAR and the record of teams. Most entities that calculate WAR make the same assumption that a team full of replacement level players would win about 52 games in a season (.320 Win %). Below are 2 links that show high correlation when studying the relationship between WAR and team ...


4

From the Fangraphs wOBA explanatory page: Exactly how much to weigh each of the components of wOBA was determined using linear weights. Linear weights are calculated using the average Run Expectancy of each of those elements for that year, then scaled twice: once to scale so that an out is a 0 (instead of negative), and once to scale so that wOBA is on ...


3

A low strikeout rate is valued because when the ball "goes into play", good things can happen. Perhaps the other team won't field the ball cleanly (or make an error) and you'll get on base. Or maybe if you're selective about what you swing at, you'll get walked. The A's have the highest run differential of any team this year by quite a margin - it's roughly ...


3

4 thousandths of a percent...ish. 6 swings and misses on 6 pitches in a row against the same pitch. For that we should talk about whiff%. As a commenter points out, it's very difficult to answer this in the general case as each pitcher is very different in how they get outs (some are strikeout pitchers, other are contact pitchers, some pitchers generate ...


3

ERA stands for Earned Run Average and to put it in other words, the average number of runs given up per game. Earned runs divided by innings pitched gives you the average number of runs per inning, which isn't particularly meaningful or easily understood. Multiple by 9, though, and now it becomes easy to grasp. For example, at the start of the season ...


2

According to Nate Silver in The Signal and the Noise a major reason that Baseball is so amenable to analysis is that it's played a lot more. Topflight baseball schedules have 162 games a season whereas topflight football has far fewer. For example, in the English Premier League each team plays just 38 games a year in the league. There are additional games ...


1

Well it's depends on the type calculation that being done and there is no one way to determine WAR. As for FIP values, ESPN uses WAR data provided by Baseball Reference which doesn't use FIP values while calculating WAR. Instead, it uses runs allowed by the pitcher and compares that to the league average pitcher (adjusting for quality of opposition), parks ...


1

I think you just have the definition of slugging percentage wrong. Quoting from Wikipedia: [Slugging percentage] is calculated as total bases divided by at bats SLG = ((1B) + (2 x 2B) + (3 x 3B) + (4 x HR)) / AB i.e. singles are multiplied by one (not two), doubles by two (not three), triples by three (not four) and home runs by four (not one).


1

This is starting to head into territory that might be better handled at CrossValidated, but it's interesting here nonetheless. One concept that's important in statistics is that even if a random variable is not normally distributed (could be uniform, binomial, gamma, who knows), a sample of its means will be normally distributed. Thus, while you cannot ...


1

OPS is on-base percentage + slugging/ at bats. Slugging gives 1 for single, 2 for double, three for triple, four for HR. On base percentage give 1 for all those, 1 for walk and 1 for HBP. So yours is OPS*At Bats.


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