Timeline for Why win the jump ball?
Current License: CC BY-SA 3.0
19 events
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| Mar 30, 2015 at 9:25 | history | edited | posdef | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Mar 26, 2015 at 20:57 | comment | added | Joe | That's fine, but what I'm saying is you keep saying "stats would show" without providing stats. Don't say "stats would show..." if you don't have the stats, it's misleading. | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 20:21 | comment | added | Coach-D | @Joe - You have to understand that this would be a tremendous amount of work. For instance you would have to throw out a huge subset of games because they may be completely over (95%+ win expectancy) by the time the 4th hits, then you have the best big factor getting the jump and 10-20 other variables. Just to see if you should win the tip? Nobody will put that much work in. As for win% the heaviest correlation is in the 1st quarter. Not because great teams play better in the first, they simply play their starters more and then less during blowout time. | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 20:02 | comment | added | Joe | What I'm saying is that all you have provided is words: what would be better is actual statistics. A link to a study. Actual data, that sort of thing. Without that, your answer feels right, but it's just guesswork. | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 19:52 | comment | added | Coach-D | @Joe - First there is a correlation between tips won and winning the game. I suggested the "tip" cannot be an inferred basis because it takes an athlete on your team to win the tip. If each team had a designated "tip guy" and he could not play then we would know for sure. There is hard correlation on any bball stats website that performance in the 4th quarter far outweighs the other three in win correlation. There is also strong correlation that having an extra possession increases chances of winning quarter. Also happy coach is a good thing right? | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 17:50 | history | edited | Coach-D | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Mar 26, 2015 at 16:33 | comment | added | Joe | I think you're right at the end of the day, but I don't find guessing that statistics exist nor the opinion of NBA coaches (see: NFL coaches and going for 2 or going for 4th and 1) as useful contributions. | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 14:59 | comment | added | Coach-D | @PhilipKendall - Like I said coaches want the ball to start the 4th. If there was a poll to all NBA coaches asking them if they want to win the tip 100% will say yes. You would never be able to infer an advantage of a tip with stats. Because given that you have a dominant big man that can win tips would probably mean you have slightly better chance of winning the game. I would guess that the tip winner has won at least 51% of those games but that may have nothing to do with winning the tip. | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 14:56 | history | edited | Coach-D | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Mar 26, 2015 at 14:55 | comment | added | Coach-D | @StackOverflowed - Added link to answer. | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 14:52 | comment | added | Philip Kendall♦ | @Coach-D but how much advantage does potentially having one extra possession leading up to the 4th quarter give to a team? If it's around 3% or so, then it all cancels out. | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 14:50 | comment | added | StackOverflowed | @Coach-D Sorry I might be misinformed, I just read this somewhere: "It should be pointed out however that the opening tip of a game really is a formality with no advantage to the team winning it since possessions are alternated for the remaining quarters with a new jump for any overtime period." 82games.com/random14.htm | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 14:49 | comment | added | Coach-D | And I am sure there is some SLOAN data that says if the game is tied that the team with first possession in the 4th quarter wins 53% of the time... | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 14:47 | comment | added | Coach-D | @StackOverflowed - No. Loser gets ball in 2nd and 3rd quarters. Can't ever remember NBA having alternating quarters. | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 14:47 | comment | added | Coach-D | It doesn't need a stats advantage at all. NBA coaches are all about the 4th quarter. If an NBA coach wants the extra possession in the 4th he wants his big to win the tip. The big doesn't care if there is a stats advantage, he does what his coach wants. So his advantage is a happy coach. | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 14:44 | comment | added | StackOverflowed | You don't get an extra possession in the 4th, since it alternates. You would actually get your posession in the third, which seems to be a disadvantage (if any, like @PhilipKendall states). | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 14:36 | comment | added | Philip Kendall♦ | Could you provide some evidence showing that one extra possession is a significant advantage? | |
| Mar 26, 2015 at 14:30 | review | Low quality posts | |||
| Mar 26, 2015 at 15:01 | |||||
| Mar 26, 2015 at 14:13 | history | answered | Coach-D | CC BY-SA 3.0 |